Let’s say you’ve been staring at your to-do list for days. You know what you should be doing, but somehow, you just can’t get yourself to take the first step. You’re stuck. Sound familiar?
Now, imagine you’re an entrepreneur named Sarah. She’s passionate about her business but is struggling to expand it. She knows she needs to reach out to more clients, but every day she finds herself avoiding those calls, scrolling through emails, or reorganizing her desk instead.
Why? It’s not because Sarah is lazy or doesn’t care. It’s because her motivation is low, and she doesn’t even realize why. This is where expectancy theory can help. Think of it as a simple formula to break down what’s going on when you’re stuck—and how to get moving again.
The “Formula” That Explains Why We Don’t Act
Expectancy theory, developed by psychologist Victor Vroom, says that three things need to line up for us to take action:
- Expectancy: Do I believe that my effort will lead to success?
- Instrumentality: Do I believe that success will get me the outcome I want?
- Valence: Do I even want the outcome?
If any of these pieces are missing, it’s no wonder we feel stuck. Let’s go back to Sarah and see how this plays out.
Step 1: Expectancy—Do You Believe You Can Succeed?
Sarah’s first problem is that she doesn’t fully believe her efforts will pay off. She’s thinking, “Even if I make these calls, will I really land any clients? Is my pitch good enough? What if I fail?” This self-doubt is crushing her motivation, making it hard for her to even take the first step.
But there’s another layer to Sarah’s struggle—she also needs to check in with herself about the effort she’s actually putting in. Is she really putting in the effort required to get the result she wants? Sometimes we expect results without fully committing our energy to the process, and that disconnect can erode our belief that success is possible.
The brain science behind it: Our brains are wired to avoid uncertainty and conserve energy. If we’re not sure our effort will lead to success, our brains may convince us to avoid the task altogether. That’s why small wins are so powerful—they give your brain immediate feedback that says, “Your effort is working.” Each time you achieve a small win, your brain gets a dopamine hit, which boosts motivation and reinforces the belief that effort leads to success. This creates momentum, making it easier to take the next step.
Solution: Start small. Instead of focusing on the big, overwhelming task of “getting new clients,” Sarah can focus on making just one call. Small wins build confidence, and each success sends a message to her brain: “You can do this.” This not only boosts expectancy—her belief in her ability to succeed—but also helps her reflect on whether she’s putting in the necessary effort. If she’s not, she can focus on showing up more consistently.
Ask yourself: Am I putting in the effort needed to get the result I want? If the answer is “yes,” great! You’re on the right track. If the answer is “no,” reflect on where you might need to show up more fully before expecting results.
Target mindset: “I believe that with effort, learning, and persistence, I have the ability to achieve this.”
Strategies for Raising Expectancy
What we’re looking for: A strong belief that your effort will lead to success. Expectancy is all about trusting your ability to achieve the result you’re after.
Start Small: Focus on small, manageable tasks that give you quick wins. Each time you successfully complete a task, your brain gets a dopamine hit, reinforcing the belief that your effort leads to success.
Reflect on Past Successes: Remind yourself of past situations where you doubted your abilities but ultimately succeeded. Reflecting on these can help build trust in your capacity to succeed again.
Focus on Growth: Shift your mindset from focusing on perfection to focusing on learning and growth. Even if you don’t succeed right away, every effort contributes to progress, which reinforces your belief in your ability to improve over time.
Address Skill Gaps: If you feel your skills aren’t up to par, identify areas for growth and make a plan to improve them. As you build competence, your confidence in your ability to succeed will increase.
Key takeaways:
- Small Wins + Dopamine: Start with small tasks that give your brain quick wins and create momentum.
- Growth Mindset: Trust that every effort contributes to progress, even if success takes time.
- Skill Development: If you’re doubting your abilities, focus on building the skills needed to boost confidence in your ability to succeed.
Step 2: Instrumentality—Will Your Success Lead to the Outcome You Want?
Sarah’s next issue is a common one: she doesn’t fully believe that even if she performs well, it’ll lead to the outcome she wants. She’s thinking, “What if I make a great pitch, but the client still says no?” This doubt comes from a feeling that factors outside her control—like the client’s decision—might stand in the way, even if she puts in her best effort.
Here’s where instrumentality comes in. Sarah needs to trust that her effort will lead to the outcome she’s working toward, but her fear of external factors is creating uncertainty, which is causing her to hold back.
The brain science behind it: Our brains are wired to love predictability. When we perceive that external factors—like a boss’s decision, market conditions, or someone else’s choices—might block our success, the brain feels uncertain and resists action. But when you focus on what you can control, you reduce that sense of unpredictability, which helps your brain feel safer taking action. Creating multiple pathways to your goal can also help reduce the fear of relying on one single outcome, keeping you motivated even when external factors come into play.
Solution: Focus on what you can control. Sarah can’t control the client’s response, but she can control how she prepares, how many calls she makes, and how much effort she puts into her pitches. By focusing on these factors, she builds a stronger connection between her actions and the results. Plus, by giving herself multiple opportunities (more calls), she increases the chances of success, reducing the brain’s fear of failure from external factors.
Ask yourself: Am I focusing on things I can control? How can I create multiple pathways to success so I don’t rely too heavily on one outcome?
Target mindset: “I trust that my effort will lead to success, and while there may be factors outside my control, I am focused on what I can influence and prepared to adapt if necessary.”
This mindset helps balance the reality of external challenges with a strong belief in your own agency. It also builds resilience and a proactive approach to navigating obstacles that may come your way.
Strategies for Raising Instrumentality
Recognize What You Can and Can’t Control. It’s important to distinguish between what you can control (your effort, strategy, performance) and what you can’t (other people’s decisions, external events). While it’s easy to feel discouraged when factors beyond your control affect outcomes, focusing on what is within your power helps maintain a sense of agency.
Adjust Your Expectations. Sometimes, acknowledging that external factors play a role can help you manage expectations. This doesn’t mean lowering your standards but rather developing a mindset that accounts for the unpredictability of external forces. Understanding this can ease frustration if the desired result doesn’t come as expected.
Focus on the Process. Instead of solely focusing on the outcome, shift some of your focus to the quality of your effort and the learning process. This builds resilience, knowing that even if external factors change the outcome, the effort you’re putting in is still moving you forward and creating opportunities for growth.
Build Multiple Pathway. When external factors seem like a potential barrier, create multiple pathways to your goal. If one path (like a promotion or landing a specific client) is blocked due to external circumstances, look for alternative ways to reach your desired outcome—whether that’s through skill development, networking, or pursuing different opportunities.
Key Takeaways:
- External Factors: Acknowledge that things outside your control may impact outcomes, but this doesn’t diminish the value of your effort.
- Resilience: Shifting focus to the process and what you can control helps maintain motivation even when external factors create uncertainty.
- Multiple Pathways: By identifying alternative ways to reach your goal, you reduce the fear of a single outcome being blocked by external factors.
Step 3: Valence—Do You Really Want the Outcome?
Finally, there’s valence—the value Sarah places on the outcome. This one can be tricky. If Sarah doesn’t truly care about expanding her business or has lost sight of why it matters, she’ll keep avoiding those calls. When motivation dips, it’s often because the goal no longer feels personally meaningful.
Here’s where valence comes in. Sarah needs to reconnect with her deeper reasons for why she started her business in the first place. Does she want to support her family? Have more freedom in her schedule? Make a meaningful impact? By rediscovering the deeper “why” behind her goal, she reignites her motivation to take action. When the outcome feels aligned with her values and long-term vision, the effort starts to matter again.
The brain science behind it: The brain is wired, or motivated, to pursue intrinsic or extrinsic rewards. If a goal doesn’t feel meaningful, an intrinsic incentive, your brain won’t release the same motivational chemicals, making it hard to sustain effort. By reconnecting with your “why,” you tap into your brain’s reward system, making the process more enjoyable and meaningful. Intrinsic motivators help you stay committed to your goals over the long term.
Ask yourself: Does this outcome truly matter to me? If motivation is low, is it because the goal doesn’t align with my values anymore? What’s my deeper “why,” and does this goal connect to the long-term vision for my life?
Target mindset: “This outcome aligns with what I truly value and my long-term vision, and I am motivated to work toward it because it matters to me.”
Strategies for Raising Valence
Intrinsic Motivation: Reconnect with Your Deeper Values and Long-Term Vision. When motivation is low, it’s often because the goal has lost its personal meaning or connection to your long-term vision. Reflect on why this goal matters. What deeper value does it align with? Is it connected to the life and future you want to create?
Clarify the “Why.” When you feel disconnected from a goal, it’s important to remind yourself of the “why” behind it. Ask yourself: Why did I set this goal in the first place? If it aligns with something meaningful—such as your desire for more freedom, connection, or growth—it becomes easier to stay motivated.
Revise Your Goals if Needed. Sometimes, lack of motivation can signal that the goal no longer resonates with your evolving values. Be willing to adjust your goals so they better reflect your personal mission and long-term vision. Goals that feel aligned with who you are and where you’re going are far more rewarding and easier to pursue.
Beware of External Pressure. If you feel like you’re pursuing a goal that was imposed by external expectations rather than your own desires, pause and reassess. Goals driven by external pressure are less likely to sustain motivation. Make sure the outcome reflects what you want, not what others expect of you.
Key Takeaways:
- Intrinsic Motivation: Reconnect with your deeper values to tap into the brain’s intrinsic reward system.
- Clarify the “Why”: Reconnect with the deeper purpose behind your goal to ensure it aligns with your values and long-term vision.
- Align with Core Values: Make sure the outcome supports the person you want to become.
- Revise if Needed: Be willing to adjust your goals if they no longer reflect your values or vision.
- Beware of External Pressure: Make sure you’re pursuing the outcome for yourself, not because of others’ expectations.
Putting It All Together
Expectancy theory shows us that when we’re stuck, it’s usually because one of these three things is off:
- You don’t believe your effort will pay off (Expectancy).
- You don’t trust that success will bring the outcome you want (Instrumentality).
- You’re not fully motivated by the outcome (Valence).
Sarah’s experience teaches us that the way out of inaction is to check each of these areas:
- Does your goal feel too big? Start with small wins to boost your belief that effort leads to success. By giving your brain quick feedback through manageable tasks, you can build confidence and keep momentum going. Each win reinforces the connection between effort and results.
- Are you worried about things you can’t control? Focus on what you can influence. Instrumentality is about trusting that your actions lead to outcomes, but external factors can get in the way. By concentrating on what’s within your control and creating multiple pathways to success, you reduce uncertainty and strengthen your belief that your effort matters.
- Have you lost connection with your “why”? Revisit what makes the outcome meaningful to you. Valence is about aligning your goals with your deeper values and long-term vision. If the outcome doesn’t feel important, it’s harder to stay motivated. Reflect on why the goal matters, and if needed, adjust your goals so they resonate with what you truly value.
When these three pieces—Expectancy, Instrumentality, and Valence—align, motivation naturally follows. The brain feels more confident, focused, and engaged, making action the logical next step. You stop feeling stuck, and instead, you’re empowered to move forward with clarity and purpose.
Your Turn: Try the Formula
If you’re feeling stuck, use expectancy theory as a simple checklist to pinpoint where things might be out of alignment:
- Do I believe I can succeed? (Expectancy)
If you’re doubting your ability, including your ability to put in the effort required, start small. Focus on quick wins to build confidence. Small successes give your brain the feedback it needs to trust that your effort will lead to progress. - Do I trust that success will get me what I want? (Instrumentality)
If you’re worried about factors outside your control, shift your focus to what you can influence. Reinforce the link between your actions and outcomes by creating multiple pathways to success. This reduces the brain’s resistance to uncertainty. - Do I truly want the outcome? (Valence)
If your motivation is low, it might be because the outcome no longer feels meaningful. Reconnect with your deeper “why” and ensure the goal aligns with your values and long-term vision. If necessary, revise your goal so it reflects what truly matters to you.
If any of these areas feel out of alignment, that’s okay. Just start small. Whether it’s breaking your goal into manageable steps, focusing on what’s within your control, or rediscovering your reason for pursuing the outcome, these shifts will help you gain clarity and momentum.
By taking small, consistent actions, you’ll begin to see progress. Soon you’ll be moving forward again with renewed energy, confidence, and purpose.
Resources
For further reading on expectancy theory, check out the article: Victor Vroom’s Expectancy Theory of Motivation by Jeremy Sutton, Ph.D., published on February 14, 2024. This article explores the theory in-depth and provides additional insights into how you can apply it to your personal and professional life.
